1: Sampling from a binomial

  1. Choose a # of observations and # of tosses of the globe that land on W. Start with a probability of 0.8.
  2. Use grid sampling to get a posterior with your choice of prior that is not flat.
  3. Give point estimates and uncertainty of the probability of landing on W. Make an informative plot.
  4. Create a model check. Did your model checks show you were all good?

2: A Linear Model

With the Howell data on the !kung san - data(Howell1)
a. Subset to between ages 0-20
b. Intelligently evaluate your priors. Show that you have done so! c. Fit a linear model using rethinking.
d. Show checks of assumptions
e. Show the fit with both fit and prediction intervals.
f. For extra credit/fun, look at the whole dataset and repeat with a nonlinear model!